Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 1.481355 1.566109 1.654589 1.754110 1.863246 1.979638 2.113625
2025-11-30 1.363246 1.482731 1.613192 1.767188 1.945282 2.146365 2.392882
2025-12-07 1.268216 1.404460 1.557576 1.744186 1.967967 2.231006 2.568694
2025-12-14 1.184369 1.329183 1.495470 1.703116 1.959240 2.270089 2.684514
2025-12-21 1.130390 1.283529 1.462761 1.691519 1.981058 2.343140 2.843666
2025-12-28 1.098871 1.261632 1.455618 1.708500 2.036803 2.459881 3.066921
2026-01-04 1.056507 1.223623 1.425690 1.693620 2.048737 2.517932 3.212792
2026-01-11 1.033621 1.207991 1.422020 1.710943 2.102461 2.633985 3.449368
2026-01-18 1.006618 1.185563 1.408060 1.713133 2.134683 2.721073 3.650127
2026-01-25 0.994853 1.181596 1.417090 1.745591 2.209549 2.873065 3.964620
2026-02-01 0.957469 1.143004 1.378992 1.711687 2.187999 2.881196 4.049540
2026-02-08 0.916906 1.098848 1.331794 1.662891 2.141946 2.848768 4.063264
2026-02-15 0.892639 1.076168 1.313538 1.655213 2.157802 2.915605 4.258671
2026-02-22 0.876207 1.063261 1.307890 1.664973 2.200013 3.026857 4.545924
2026-03-01 0.850064 1.036365 1.281964 1.644118 2.194150 3.059859 4.694295
2026-03-08 0.819775 1.002908 1.245771 1.606621 2.160295 3.043981 4.747957
2026-03-15 0.800467 0.983694 1.228565 1.596026 2.167474 3.096605 4.940077
2026-03-22 0.790981 0.977481 1.229143 1.611538 2.216449 3.223766 5.298805
2026-03-29 0.772659 0.958516 1.210984 1.597946 2.217456 3.266746 5.487925
2026-04-05 0.764574 0.953424 1.212283 1.613769 2.267221 3.400529 5.894515
2026-04-12 0.752681 0.942618 1.204917 1.615769 2.293804 3.493737 6.225315
2026-04-19 0.749566 0.943988 1.215124 1.645394 2.368763 3.684492 6.824357
2026-04-26 0.729076 0.920184 1.187717 1.614448 2.337147 3.666151 6.899457